Groundhog Day 2022 accuracy rate: Will Staten Island Chuck’s forecast streak continue? - SILive.com

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — You can bet on Chuck.

The Staten Island Zoo's Charles G. Hogg — better known as Staten Island Chuck — has quite the record when it comes to accurately predicting weather patterns.

Prior to 2021, the West Brighton-based prognosticator correctly predicted 10 out of 11 years with the only black mark being 2017. Before that, he was last wrong in 2009 — the same year he took a bite out of then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

Last year, during a coronavirus-safe yet still controversial virtual ceremony, Chuck called for an early spring. Ken Mitchell, Zoo executive director, told the Advance/SILive.com that Chuck's 2021 prediction was accurate.

This year, Chuck will make his prediction live. Similar to last year, crowds will not be permitted due to the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the Zoo said it plans to provide a live feed of the ceremony, and the Advance/SILive.com will be there to cover all the action.

The Advance/SILive.com's Erik Bascome broke down Chuck's accuracy, and how his predictions are measured with his predictions tracked by local youth, dubbed "junior weather predictors," in recent years. The children track how many days over the six weeks following Chuck's prediction are warmer — or atypical — for winter weather, defined as days when the temperature rises above 40 degrees.

At the end of the six-week period, if there are more atypical weather days than typical weather days, it means we had an early spring. If there are more typical weather days than atypical weather days, we had six more weeks of winter.

Here's a look back at some of Chuck's recent performances:

2021: For the seventh-straight year, Chuck called for an early spring. The annual ceremony looked a bit different this year, with no crowds cheering on Chuck. The Zoo pre-recorded the ceremony a short time before a major nor'easter, confusing several viewers. That said, Chuck provided an accurate prediction.

2020: A mere few weeks before the coronavirus (COVID-19) shut down the entire world, people came out in droves to watch Chuck make his prediction. Unable to find his shadow, he accurately predicted an early spring.

2019: Chuck failed to find his shadow when exiting his burrow, calling for an early spring. While Mayor Bill de Blasio was not in attendance at the Zoo's event, he didn't escape a dig from then Rep. Max Rose (D-Staten Island/Brooklyn), who opened his speech with "[Deputy Borough President Ed Burke] drops jokes and animal facts like the mayor drops groundhogs."

2018: Chuck searched in vain for his shadow, then predicted an early spring when he popped up from below in his plastic enclosure. Well done, Chuck. PS 45 students supported his prediction, since warmer days prevailed. Deputy Borough President Ed Burke acted as emcee during the annual celebration, while Public Advocate Letitia Lames and NYC Comptroller Scott Springer announced the prediction.

2017: Despite the cold morning, Chuck predicted an early spring. Unfortunately, after six weeks of tracking the temperature, third-graders at PS 45 in West Brighton declared his prediction wrong. For the first time since 2009, Chuck made an inaccurate prediction.

2016: A small crowd gathered at the Staten Island Zoo in hopes of an early spring. Fortunately, Chuck delivered. The little guy searched and searched for his shadow, but couldn't find it, signaling the start of an early spring. This was Chuck's second year in his new clear plastic enclosure.

2015: On a cold, wet February day, Chuck called for another early spring, as he failed to find his shadow in his newly minted clear plastic case. De Blasio stood a safe distance from the groundhog, reading the prediction from a scroll, after the previous year's fiasco.

2014: It was a Groundhog Day full of drama when the mayor said: "Chuck and my predecessor didn't always get along, but I'm hoping we can start a new day," and then proceeded to drop the poor animal. However, it turns out that the groundhog he dropped was Charlotte, Chuck's mate, who had been swapped out before the ceremony. Unfortunately, Charlotte died seven days later, of what the Staten Island Zoo referred to as "unknown natural causes." At least Charlotte died a martyr, making another accurate prediction, this time for six more weeks of winter.

2013: Staten Island Chuck doesn't agree with his rival — Punxsutawny Phil — very often, but he did that year. Then-City Council Speaker Christine Quinn said that the prediction was because Chuck was "having a good day this morning," adding that she had a "conference" with him about what was going to happen. Her pep talk must have worked, because he predicted an early spring and he was right.

2012: A couple days before the New York Giants defeated the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl for a second time, Chuck gave New Yorkers something else to cheer about. He predicted an early spring, and much to the delight of Emma Boyd, an 11-year-old student at Blessed Sacrament School, West Brighton, he was right. Boyd said, "I'm tired of winter now."

2011: If ever there was a need for an early spring, 2011 would have been it. The weather was icy, slushy and cold while Chuck munched on corn and sweet potatoes and the audience enjoyed a Groundhog Day-themed cake made by Cake Boss Buddy Valastro. Chuck scurried out of his new log cabin home — with solar panels on the roof — but couldn't find his shadow, signaling the start of an early spring that everyone so desperately desired.

2010: Chuck reminded us that sometimes you just need to press the snooze button even if you have work in the morning. Chuck overslept and had to be woken by chants of "We want Chuck" from the audience. Even though he was still drowsy, Chuck accurately predicted an early spring and began a streak of correct predictions.

2009: Groundhog Day 2009 is the day that will live on in New York City history as the day Staten Island Chuck bit then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The mayor held out an ear of corn in an attempt to lure Chuck. However, Chuck didn't appear very grateful. He ran over and bit the mayor's hand before running off with the corn. To top it off, Chuck's prediction was inaccurate.